A year ago, Vanderbilt—riding a three-game winning streak including their program-shifting win against Alabama—took Texas down to the wire, ultimately falling 27–24. That Longhorns team went on to the College Football Playoff semifinal. The Commodores would finish 7–6, marking significant progress for Clark Lea’s program.
Fast forward one year, and Vanderbilt is turning into the hunted, rather than the hunter. That much was clear on Saturday. Texas, in its first true home game in a month, came out of the gates firing, scoring on its first play from scrimmage. Things didn’t slow down there, as Arch Manning played arguably the best full game of his college career to keep the Longhorns alive among the many SEC programs in the wide-open College Football Playoff conversation. Vanderbilt led a valiant comeback effort, scoring 21 unanswered fourth quarter points behind a gutsy performance by quarterback Diego Pavia, but ran out of time at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Fischer: College Football Playoff Bracket Week 10 Live Projections
With Texas’s 34–31 win, the Longhorns move to 7–2 with a 4–1 record in SEC play, while Vanderbilt drops to 7–2 (3–2). Here’s how the Longhorns win impacts the CFP race for both teams.
How Texas defeated Vanderbilt
Steve Sarkisian is a master of the screen game, and Texas took advantage of the edge it has in explosiveness on the outside to dice up Clark Lea’s defense. On the very first play from scrimmage, Manning hit Ryan Wingo on a basic swing pass behind the line of scrimmage, and Wingo tore through the Vanderbilt secondary for a 75-yard touchdown.
The Horns didn’t slow down from there.
Texas scored on each of its full drives of the first half, taking a 24–10 lead into halftime, and continued with a touchdown and field goal in the third quarter. It wasn’t until a fourth-quarter missed field goal that the Longhorns went without scoring on a drive.
Vanderbilt mounted its comeback in the final frame, with Pavia throwing for a trio of touchdown passes, mounting drives of 77, 67 and 89 yards to get within three points. The Commodores nearly recovered an onside kick after the final touchdown, but the ball deflected off of a Vandy player and rolled out of bounds, giving Texas possession and the ability to kneel out the remainder of the clock.
Manning, who was questionable entering Saturday’s game after leaving last weekend’s overtime win at Mississippi State with a concussion, put together the best full game of his college career, considering the competition. He finished 25-of-33 for 328 yards and three touchdowns.
His counterpart Diego Pavia played a great game as well, finishing 27-of-38 for 365 yards and three scores of his own, along with 43 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Commodores showed life after a rough first quarter that saw a strip-sack of Pavia lead to a quick Texas field goal. After falling behind 34–10, Vandy clawed its way back into the game, with Pavia leading an eight-play, 77-yard touchdown drive capped by his touchdown run to open the fourth quarter. On their next possession, off of Texas’s missed kick, he found his favorite target, tight end Eli Stowers (seven receptions, 146 yards, two touchdowns), for a 67-yard touchdown on the first play of the drive. Pavia and Stowers connected once again on the third touchdown of the quarter, with 33 seconds remaining. It was the Diego show for Vandy once again, especially on the ground. Outside of Pavia’s designed runs and improvisations, Commodores running backs accounted for just 15 rushing yards on 10 carries, with the Longhorns front dominating a strong Vandy offensive line and making the team one-dimensional.
This isn’t Texas’s first great win of the year; even with questions about John Mateer’s health in the game, beating Oklahoma 23–6 and limiting the Sooners offense the way the Longhorns did is mighty impressive. Manning mostly took what Brent Venables defense gave him and effectively managed the game well enough to give the defense some breathing room. On Saturday against Vanderbilt, Texas played the kind of true complimentary football that was expected of the program when it entered the season with the No. 1 ranking, at least through three quarters. The near-collapse at the end will have Sarkisian answering some questions, but this is a big result for the Longhorns nevertheless.
With Texas’s win…
The work is far from done. To feel confident, the Longhorns should run the table and finish the year 10–2. That means winning at Georgia in a week, surviving a huge trap game against Bobby Petrino and Arkansas and finally, beating archrival Texas A&M at home to end the season.
Wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M, and one of two losses coming against No. 1 Ohio State on the road be enough to overcome the sloppy first half of the year and loss to a Florida team on the verge of firing its coach at the time. It would also indicate some serious growth from Manning and the offense, which should help its argument with the selection committee.
With a sweep of their remaining games, ESPN’s playoff predictor gives Texas a 99% chance of making the playoff field, even without an SEC championship berth. They may still have a chance at 9–3 with a win over one of the Bulldogs and Aggies, but as we saw last season, there are no guarantees for 9–3 teams, even those with a slew of strong SEC wins.
Texas’s 2025 football schedule
.
Date
Opponent
Score
Aug. 30
at No. 1 Ohio State
L 14–7
Sept. 6
vs. San José State
W 38–7
Sept. 13
vs. UTEP
W 27–10
Sept. 20
vs. Sam Houston State
W 55–0
Oct. 4
at Florida
L 29–21
Oct. 11
vs. No. 13 Oklahoma (in Dallas)
W 23–6
Oct. 18
at Kentucky
W 16–13 (OT)
Oct. 25
at Mississippi State
W 45–38 (OT)
Nov. 1
vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt
W 34–31
Nov. 15
at No. 5 Georgia
TBD
Nov. 22
vs. Arkansas
TBD
Nov. 29
vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
TBD
With Vanderbilt’s loss…
Vandy could better afford a loss in this game, as they entered at 7–1 with two strong wins in a row against LSU and Mizzou. Texas was one of two marquee games left on the schedule, which is good news for the Commodores when it comes to going 10–2, but bad news with regard to their résumé.
Vandy hosts struggling Auburn and Kentucky teams over the next two weeks—both programs that have underwhelmed but are fully capable of pulling a late-season upset to throw the SEC standings into disarray. The Dores end the season with a trip to Knoxville to face rival Tennessee, another team hoping to stick in the playoff mix. Even if one of these two Tennessee-based programs has fallen out of the CFP race by Nov. 28, expect a hotly contested game played for pride.
ESPN’s football power index is still very bullish on Vandy’s chances to make the field if they can win out, giving the 10–2 Commodores a 96% chance to reach the 12-team field. With a loss to the Volunteers to end the year, that mark plummets to 17%.
Vanderbilt’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 10 AP Top 25.
Date
Opponent
Score
Aug. 30
vs. Charleston Southern
W 45–3
Sept. 6
at Virginia Tech
W 44–20
Sept. 13
at South Carolina
W 31–7
Sept. 20
vs. Georgia State
W 70–21
Sept. 27
vs. Utah State
W 55–35
Oct. 4
at No. 4 Alabama
L 30–14
Oct. 18
vs. LSU
W 31–24
Oct. 25
vs. No. 19 Missouri
W 17–10
Nov. 1
at No. 20 Texas
L 34–31
Nov. 8
vs. Auburn
TBD
Nov. 15
vs. Kentucky
TBD
Nov. 28
at No. 14 Tennessee
TBD
s postseason projections for Texas, Vanderbilt
Entering Week 10, Pat Forde had Texas outside of the current playoff picture following another lackluster performance against Mississippi State last weekend. He does acknowledge that the Longhorns are just a game back in the SEC loss column, and could become a serious spoiler for the league's playoff hunt, even if they can't claw their way into the 12-team field themselves. Bryan Fischer also had Texas on the outside looking in, and projected the Longhorns to face Nebraska in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Forde had Vanderbilt locked in as the No. 9 seed in his current playoff field, set for a game at Mississippi after Week 9’s results. Fischer also had the Commodores at No. 9 in his Week 9 live bracket, slated to hit the road for a game at Oregon. In his forward-looking projection after Week 9, Fischer had Vandy missing the playoff with Oregon and Notre Dame taking the last two at-large spots, and the Commodores heading to the Citrus Bowl for a matchup with Michigan.
Fischer will be updating his live 12-team bracket throughout Saturday, which now has the Commodores out of the field as well. Check back to see if he shifts the outlooks for the Longhorns and Commodores.
